How & when is the Report available?

The Intelligent Trades Top 20 List is generated after the market close and is posted to the ember section of Institutional Intelligence website between 11pm and midnight each trading day (barring a data issue that casues a delay).

How we keep score?

In order create a process for performance benchmarking over time as well as a ranking system to keep score, our model returns are calculated by applying a Time Efficient Risk Management Discipline (“TERMD”). The basics of that process are:

1. On any given day for any given stock, report the current forecast highest reasonable price as the Target Price.

2. Assume as a cost basis the closing price of that stock on the next trading day. (Reports are generated after the market close so the next trading opportujnity is the next trading day).

3. Over the next 62 market days, if the closing price of the stock exceeds the Target Price, the position is closed at the Target Price (booking the win), otherwise close out the position at the market closing price on the 62nd market day (trade times out at either a gain or loss based on Target Price).

4. All aggregated benchmark returns are time weighted.

What exactly are the data fields included in the Top 20 List Table?

Symbol Stock trading or ticker symbol

Target Price Current forecast for highest reasonable price for the stock based on the collective positining of the dealers and market makers.

Upside Percentage change from current market price to Target Price.

Downside Average maximum drawdown observed in the immediate prior five year’s of observations of the TERMD (see above) performance on days when then-current forecasts were at similar levels of risk:reward to the current date.

Recent Appearances The number of time the stock has appeared on a Top 20 List in the prior 21 market days

Win Odds / 100 The odds of the stock attaining a higher closing price than its opening price under TERMD rules in the immediate prior five year’s of observations when then-current forecasts were at similar levels of risk:reward to the current date.

Target Achievement Rate At Current Win Odds The percentage of times in the prior three years that the stock price subsequently exceeded the then current Target Price before the TERMD Timeout Date on days when the Win Odds / 100 were the same as the current date

Odds Weighted Payoff The average holding period return for the stock under the TERMD rules over the immediate prior 5 years on days when then-current forecasts were at similar levels of risk:reward to the current date weighted with the current Win Odds / 100

Average Days Held The average holding period in market days for the stock under  the TERMD rules over the immediate prior 5 years on days when then-current forecasts were at similar levels of risk:reward to the current date.

Basis Points Per Day The time weighted average daily return for the stock under the TERMD rules over the immediate prior 5 years on days when then-current forecasts were at similar levels of risk:reward to the current date.

Rank out of <x> The historical performance ranking of the stock when it has appeared in Top 20 Lists. The Ranking Value is calculated by annualizing the time-weighted average daily return produced under the TERMD rules and then scaling that value with the frequency of the stock appearing on a Top 20 List and the rate of Target Price achievement, sorted descending.